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The following article is used with permission from
the Earth Policy Institute:
www.earth-policy.org.
THE SIXTH GREAT EXTINCTION:
A Status Report
March 2, 2004
by Janet Larsen
Almost 440 million years ago, some 85 percent of marine animal species
were wiped out in the
earth's first known mass extinction. Roughly 367 million years ago, once again many
species of fish and 70 percent of marine invertebrates perished in a major extinction
event. Then about 245
million years ago, up to 95 percent of all animals--nearly the entire animal kingdom--were
lost in what is thought to be the worst extinction in history.
Some 208 million years ago, another mass extinction took a toll primarily on sea
creatures, but also some land animals. And 65 million years ago, three quarters of all
species-including the dinosaurs-were eliminated.
Among the possible causes of these mass extinctions are volcanic eruptions, meteorites
colliding with the earth, and a changing climate. After each extinction, it took upwards
of 10 million years for biological
richness to recover. Yet once a species is gone, it is gone forever.
The consensus among biologists is that we now are moving toward another mass extinction
that could rival the past big five. This potential sixth great extinction is unique in
that it is caused largely by the activities of a single species. It is the first mass
extinction that humans will witness firsthand-and not just as innocent bystanders.
While scientists are not sure how many species inhabit the planet today, their estimates
top 10 million. Yet each year thousands of species, ranging from the smallest
microorganisms to larger mammals, are lost for good. Some disappear even before we know of
their existence.
The average extinction rate is now some 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than the rate that
prevailed over the past 60 million years. Throughout most of geological history, new
species evolved faster than existing species disappeared, thus continuously increasing the
planet's biological diversity. Now evolution is falling behind.
Only a small fraction of the world's plant species has been studied in detail, but as many
as half are threatened with extinction. South and Central America, Central and West
Africa, and Southeast Asia--all home to diverse tropical forests--are losing plants most
rapidly.
Today nearly 5,500 animal species are known to be threatened with extinction. The
IUCN-World Conservation Union's 2003 Red List survey of the world's flora and fauna shows
that almost one in every four mammal species and one in eight bird species are threatened
with extinction within the next several decades. (For access to IUCN's Red List of
Threatened Species database, see www.redlist.org).
Of 1,130 threatened mammal species, 16 percent are critically endangered--the highest
threat level. This means that 184 mammal species have suffered extreme and rapid reduction
in population or habitat and may not survive this decade. Their remaining numbers range
from under a few hundred to, at most, a few thousand individuals. For birds, 182 of the
1,194 threatened species are critically endangered.
Although the status of most of the world's mammals and birds is fairly well documented, we
know relatively little about the rest of the world's fauna. Only 5 percent of fish, 6
percent of reptiles, and 7 percent of amphibians have been evaluated. Of those studied, at
least 750 fish species, 290 reptiles, and 150 amphibians are at risk. Worrisome
signs--like the mysterious disappearance of entire amphibian populations and fishers' nets
that come up empty more frequently--reveal that there may be more species in trouble. Of
invertebrates, including insects, mollusks, and crustaceans, we know the least. But what
is known is far from reassuring.
At the advent of agriculture some 11,000 years ago, the world was home to 6 million
people. Since then our ranks have grown a thousandfold. Yet the increase in our numbers
has come at the expense of many other species.
The greatest threat to the world's living creatures is the degradation and destruction of
habitat, affecting 9 out of 10 threatened species. Humans have transformed nearly half of
the planet's ice-free land areas, with serious effects on the rest of nature. We have made
agricultural fields out of prairies and forests. We have dammed rivers and drained
wetlands. We have paved over soil to build cities and roads.
Each year the earth's forest cover shrinks by 16 million hectares (40 million acres), with
most of the loss occurring in tropical forests, where levels of biodiversity are high.
Ecologically rich wetlands have been cut in half over the past century. Other freshwater
and terrestrial ecosystems have been degraded by pollution. Deserts have expanded to
overtake previously vegetated areas, accelerated in some cases by overgrazing of
domesticated animals.
A recent study of 173 species of mammals from around the world showed that their
collective geographical ranges have been halved over the past several decades, signifying
a loss of breeding and foraging area. Overall, between 2 and 10 percent of mammal
populations (groups of a single species
in a specific geographical location) are thought to have disappeared along with their
habitat.
Direct human exploitation of organisms, such as through hunting and harvesting, threatens
more than a third of the listed birds and mammals. Other threats to biodiversity include
exotic species, often transported by humans, which can outcompete and displace native
species.
A recent survey of some 1,100 animal and plant species found that climate change could
wipe out between 15 and 37 percent of them by 2050. Yet the actual losses may be greater
because of the complexity of natural systems. The extinction of key species could have
cascading effects throughout the
food web. As John Donne wrote, "no man is an island." The same is true for the
other species we share this planet with: the loss of any single species from the web of
life can affect many others.
Healthy ecosystems support us with many services--most fundamentally by supplying the air
we breathe and filtering the water we drink. They provide us with food, medicine, and
shelter. When ecosystems lose
biological richness, they also lose resilience, becoming more susceptible to the effects
of climate change, invasions of alien species, and other disturbances.
The 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity provides a framework for countries to conserve
biological diversity and promote sustainable development. It has been signed by 168
countries, notably excluding the United States. The parties, which recently held their
seventh conference in February 2004 in Kuala Lumpur, have set a target of substantially
reducing biodiversity loss by 2010. Yet the convention lacks mechanisms for action and
enforcement, which may make it difficult to achieve the target.
Consciously avoiding habitat destruction and mitigating the effects of land use change,
reducing the direct exploitation of plants and wildlife, and slowing climate change can
help us stop weakening the very
life-support systems we depend on. While this may be the first time in history that a
single species can precipitate a mass extinction event, it is also the first time in
history that a single species can act to prevent it.
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